Thursday, December 13, 2007

Doom and Gloom Bubble Blogs

I recently found the underbelly of the real estate market downturn. No, it's not fraudulent lenders. As I've said before, I've been reading these doom and gloom bubble blogs. One is even written by a renter! This niche is new to me--really. The sad thing about these blogs is the joy in reporting how bad the market is right now. I guess they've been predicting it for quite some time and feel vindicated that it has come to fruition--which, if they had waited long enough, will always work that way. Real estate is a predictable market. But, sometimes, it's like predicting an earthquake in California. We all know it'll happen, but we don't know when and we're not certain of the amount of damage. Just that there will be damage.

So I have my bubble blogs that I read. They're all very similar. I have to say, though, that these people are very educated in real estate investment and most of the niches in the market, even the renter guy. They can write an intellectual blog about interest rates and stuff that makes my head spin. I wonder if they suffer from analysis paralysis and that's why they don't invest, if any of them do--or did. Maybe I would be a better investor if I knew the names of the CEO's for all the banks and lending institutions. Maybe I should have done a rent analysis for every location in the US when taking into consideration the rate of inflation and deflation. Do you think that I wouldn't have lost so much money in apartments if I did? Probably. Only because I wouldn't have bought anything. I'd rather take an educated (as much as possible) risk and lose, than not take a chance at all.

I am learning quite a bit by reading these blogs, but you'd have to have a die hard interest in all things real estate to get through some of them. And they are so negative. Negative, negative, negative! Ugh. What a life--to sit there in glee of others' misfortune. Oh, and, by the way, they seem to hate investors--just as much as mainstream media, if not more. Bummer. I'm so hurt. NOT! I guess their attitudes make them lots of money because they have ads all over their fancy sites. It's odd because there are ads for real estate and loans. Wait, didn't they just knock buying property, agents, lenders, and everything real estate? Yet they're promoting those things, too. Huh? Anything for a buck, I guess.

I even post comments on these blogs. Sometimes, the writer hits the nail on the head. I don't care if they hate me. I can contribute, too, you know. I can charitably disagree, or I can tell them how much I liked the post.

Here are my favorites, if you're interested:

Southern California Real Estate Bubble Crash Blog (this guy doesn't reveal his real identity)
Dr. Housing Bubble Blog
Housing Doom
The Housing Bubble Blog (this blog is HUGE)
(Beware of some of the language in the posts and comments!)

I do worry about their fate when the market recovers, however. Maybe they can use some of their really old posts that warned of the impending crash, and start all over again with their predictions. Some of them act as if real estate will crumble, become worthless and never appreciate again. That no one in their right mind would buy another property--ever. Well, well, well, I guess I do know something they don't (or at least refuse to acknowledge). Unlike these bloggers, I know that it will recover. History tells me that it always has--loan fiasco or no loan fiasco. As long as there are buyers, real estate will have value.

And my personal story is so much more fascinating than the analysis of the economic impact of a 25 basis point cut in the interest rate.